Heterogeneous component multiplicative error models for forecasting trading volumes

Implementing Trading Strategies for Forecasting Models ∗

In this paper we implement trading strategies for asset price forecasting models using parameterised decision rules. We develop a synthetic trading environment to investigate the relative effects, in terms of profitability, of modifying the forecasting model and the decision rule. We show that implementation of the trading rule can be as important to trading performance as the predictive abilit...

Trading Partners and Trading Volumes∗

Discrete choice models with multiplicative error terms

We propose a multiplicative speci cation of a discrete choice model that renders choice probabilities independent of the scale of the utility. The scale can thus be random with unspeci ed distribution. The model mostly outperforms the classical additive formulation over a range of stated choice data sets. In some cases, the improvement in likelihood is greater than that obtained from adding obs...

Vector Multiplicative Error Models: Representation and Inference∗

The Multiplicative Error Model introduced by Engle (2002) for positive valued processes is specified as the product of a (conditionally autoregressive) scale factor and an innovation process with positive support. In this paper we propose a multivariate extension of such a model, by taking into consideration the possibility that the vector innovation process be contemporaneously correlated. The...

Local Adaptive Multiplicative Error Models for High- Frequency Forecasts

We propose a local adaptive multiplicative error model (MEM) accommodating timevarying parameters. MEM parameters are adaptively estimated based on a sequential testing procedure. A data-driven optimal length of local windows is selected, yielding adaptive forecasts at each point in time. Analyzing one-minute cumulative trading volumes of five large NASDAQ stocks in 2008, we show that local win...